The major obstacle facing Senator Kennedy in his steeplechase race to the White House is that he cannot claim the support of those who would seem his greatest backers--fellow Roman Catholic politicians. The four key states in any convention will be controlled in 1960 by Catholics, all of whom have at least a slight hope for the vice-Presidential nomination. Each, of course, controls a significant block of votes, but Kennedy cannot use his greatest bargaining deal--votes in exchange for an endorsement for vice-President. A Catholic running mate for Kennedy, of course, would be out of the question to party politicians.

Thus, the leaders of the most powerful delegations are likely to be receptive to the bargains of other candidates. Kennedy can promise no more than a chance to make a nominating speech, or a thank-you note.

The heads of the California and New York delegations have very definite vice-Presidential nomination hopes. In addition to being a favorite son Presidential candidate, California's Governor Edmond Brown has chances at the second spot on the ticket. Although he may privately think the junior Senator from Massachusetts is the best man, Brown cannot support Kennedy without cutting his own political throat as far as 1960 is concerned.

Likewise, Kennedy is helpless in bargaining for New York's tempting bloc of votes. Mayor Robert F. Wagner of New York City, leader of the state delegation, plans a shot at the second spot and also must remain quiet on Kennedy.

Two other delegations will not throw early support to Senator Kennedy because their leaders, both Catholics, have enough of an interest in the vice-Presidential nomination to keep off the Kennedy bandwagon. Governor Michael DeSalle and Senator Frank Lausche of Ohio and Governor David Lawrence of Pennsylvania, thus are not able to bargain with Kennedy as long as the tacit prohibition of two Catholics on the same ticket stands.

Kennedy then will go to Los Angeles next summer probably without the support of any one of the top four delegations. Even if the state leaders decide that the vice-Presidential slot is out of reach and pledge themselves to Kennedy at the convention--as any of them might do--the Senator will have lost their earlier support that could have started the all-important bandwagon rolling.

Just as the Roman Catholic Bishops of the United States have cost the Senator votes and embarrassment by the out-of-place birth control issue, so have those who would seem to be his greatest backers cost Kennedy by their silence a chance for a commanding lead.