This article is the first of a short series on the Middle East. The series is intended to give readers at least a glancing insight behind the explosive headlines about this dangerously precarious area. Further series on other troubled sections of the world will follow.
Russia hopes to legally take over Iran and use its oil as a potent economic pressure against countries of the Middle and Far East, according to Richard N. Frye, assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies, who has recently returned from a year's travel in this area.
Premier Mossadegh of Iran, ruling by fear, fears assassination himself and is being exploited by extremist groups around him, Frye said.
Although the Tudah or Communist party is outlawed in Iran, they are very well organized in the cities which "they could take over tomorrow," Frye stated. But they know that a combination of the tribes, the villagers, and the landowners could starve them out of power by cutting off food supplies.
The tribes, both settled and nomadic, constitute about ten percent of the population, he explained. "They are highly organized and disciplined, and together could muster 100,000 fighting men armed with modern machine guns and artillery." He said that some chiefs have large houses in Teheran and buy on the international market.
They are not only anti-Communist, they're anti-government, he stated. "They only tolerate the existing government because it is so weak." Russian agents have thus far been unsuccessful in persuading the tribes to set up small independent states or to overthrow tyrannical chiefs.
"The Tudah is trying to get legal or semi-legal seizure of power," Frye stated. He called attention to a 1921 treaty by which Russia promises to help the government if foreign troops enter the country.
Contrary to widely accepted reports that Russia wants Persian oil for their own mobilization effort, Frye said that they have "plenty of oil to exploit in the Soviet bloc," and that if they get control of Iran they will undersell Western oil companies and thus, "use this oil as a lever to bring economic pressure" on India, China, Indo China and other nations in that region.
Frye described Mossadegh as being a wealthy landowner having dictatorial powers but lacking dictatorial qualities. "It's difficult to see what he's after. He's being pushed." Frye told of an earlier attempt on the Premier's life and stressed, "This is a constant threat."
There are three main groups pressuring Mossadegh. The Fanatics of Islam are fighting for a revival of Islamic practices in Iran and a great pan-Islamic movement, he explained. "The're not consistently anti-West or East, but pro-Islamic."
Elements of Mossadegh's own National Front party are split over the speed and scope of his actions and their own individual ambitions. They employ a strong group of thugs "who start riots and protect the Premier" but their lack of discipline makes them dangerous. "No one controls the army," Frye added. "It has gone to pot.
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