This is the third of six articles on the forthcoming elections.

III: New York State: Dewey Runs Again

This year may well be the last time Thomas E. Dewey tries for major political office. Dewey, who is not yet 50, has run five times previously for a high position, and today voters seem to be growing tired of him.

Dewey is favored to defeat his formerly unknown opponent, Representative Walter A. Lynch, in the New York gubernatorial race, but the margin should be very close--nothing like the 687,000 plurality that the governor achieved in 1946. And Lynch may even upset Dewey, something which seemed impossible six weeks ago. The two factors which have weakened the governor's chances are a growing dislike of him in upstate New York and the "Hanley letter."

For years Dewey has kept dissident Republican politicians in check with the threat that "he would soon be in the White House." The 1948 election exploded that myth for everyone except Dewey's closest advisers. If enough rural Republicans in northern New York stay away from the polls or refuse to vote for Dewey because of his "dictatorial" rule of the state, the governor may not have a large enough majority to overcome Lynch's Democratic sweep of New York City.

The "Hanley letter," which Joe Hanley, the present lieutenant governor and current G.O.P. candidate for senator, wrote to one of his supporters, uncovered the story of his withdrawal in favor of Dewey just before the Republican state convention in September. Last June Dewey had said that he wanted to retire from office, and Hanley then became the only candidate for the Republican nomination for governor.

For a variety of reasons--including the Korean war and the weakness of Hanley's candidacy--Dewey changed his mind, but there was strong upstate support for Hanley. After public pressure and private meetings, however, Hanley agreed to withdraw in favor of Dewey for governor and instead take the senatorial nomination against the Democrats' top vote-getter, Herbert H. Lehman.

Democrats Get Letter

Somehow Hanley's letter, in which he said his financial obligations would be cleared up if he switched to the senate race, got into Democratic hands so that the G.O.P. released it themselves to take the edge off the news. In the opinion of many, Dewey no longer seems like an "able executive" after the Hanley affair but more like a "cold politician who forces his will on others."

The one thing that may clinch the election for Dewey could be the few thousand anti-Dewey votes that are wasted on the American Labor Party nominee. The ALP, Vito Marcantonio's group, has been widely tagged with the Red label and is not expected to draw many votes, especially since the Korean War. However, in a really close election the marginal ballots could make the difference.

The public attacks, as a result of the "Hanley letter," have all been directed at Dewey, but privately the letter has cost Hanley even more votes. In it, he describes himself as "humiliated, disappointed, and heartsick," and hardly gives the voters a favorable impression of the type of senator he would make.

It looks as if Hanley will need the job he talks about in the letter--" (if I lose) I have an ironclad, unbreakable arrangement whereby I will be given a job with the state." Lehman, the incumbent, soundly beat John Foster Dulles last year to win the Senate post and also won over Dewey in 1938, when the latter first tried for the governorship. In an uncertain year, Lehman's election is as definite as anything can be.

Split May Help G.O.P.

Both Lehman and Lynch could suffer from the Democratic split on the New York City ballot, where two Democrats and one Republican are running to fill former Mayor O'Dwyer's unexpired term. City Council President Vincent Impellitteri, acting mayor since O'Dwyer resigned two months ago, was denied the Democratic nomination and surprised everyone by running as an independent. The Democrats chose instead Judge Ferdinand-Pecora, while the G.O.P. named State Industrial Commissioner Edward Corsi.

Little attention was paid to Impellitteri at first, but, as a few other independent candidacies have been able to do, his has grown stronger as the election approached. Without reputation or organization, Impellitteri has somehow captured the public's imagination.

The Democratic split may enable Corsi to slip into office in strongly-Democratic New York City, much as LaGuardia did in 1933. More likely, however, is a victory for Pecora and the regular Democratic organization.

One thing stands out in these three confused races. The personalities of the candidates, and not the party principles, are the all-important issue to the voters. Observers will be wrong if they judge the results of these contests as a mandate for or against the Democratic Far Eastern policy and Fair Deal.