This is the first of six articles on the forthcoming elections.

Gains but not control are now about all the Republican Party can expect from this November's off-year election. For a long time this summer, Republicans had strong hopes of recapturing the control of Congress they won in 1946 and then lost two years later. But the war in Korea has shunted so many factors in and out of the mid-summer political equation, that today you will have a hard time finding any Republican leader who will predict sweeping victory for the G.O.P. ten days from now.

'Crime and Korea'

As late as September, the Republicans were rubbing their hands. Mid-term elections have always been G.O.P. asset, for Democratic "apathy" in non-presidential years has kept the vote light. On top of this, summer setbacks in Korea handed the G.O.P. a powerful campaign cry: "Crime, corruption, communism and Korea."

Republicans suddenly dropped their old pre-Korea attacks on "governmental regimentation and creeping socialism" in favor of the new war issues. It was very easy to point to the "Failure" of foreign policy and defense policy, to military unpreparedness, and to the "disclosures" of communism in the U.S. government. Louis H. Bean, the only forecaster who was right in 1948, wouldn't predict an all out GOP victory, but he clearly suggested that Korea had given the Republicans their one real chance.

Now all this GOP optimism is over, as anyone who has been following recent war news can see. Republicans still keep shouting "corruption and Korea," but with the nation cheering victories, the listening public has suddenly become less attentive. Louis Johnson is gone, and President Truman has flown to Wake Island to meet the triumphant General MacArthur. For the Administration the timing of everything could scarcely have been better.

In July, the Republicans second almost certain of seizing at least one House of Congress; today they probably won't get either. To win, the Republicans must pick up seven more seats in Congress and 45 more in the House. The experts don't think in can be done, and even top GOI leaders have admitted privately that they no longer think so, either.

The fight will still be close, however, because the Republicans have found soft spots in Democratic strength in Illinois, California, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and elsewhere. But at the same time, the late war news has made the Republicans more vulnerable in such danger areas as Ohio, Colorado, and Missouri, Equally distressing to the GOP is the fear that the "Hanley letter" episode in New York State has suddenly given to the unknown Rep. Walter Lynch a chance to defeat Governor Thomas E. Dewey.

Clue to '52

The fact that key symbols of both parties happen to be seeking re-election makes this fall's campaign much more than a more struggle for short-run control of Congress. Observers will be keenly watching the personal campaigns of Republicans Taft, Dcwey, and Milliken and of Democrats Lucas, Meyers, Tydings, and Helen Gahaghan Douglas. The outcomes of these races will test almost every important national issue and will certainly give a clue to what will happen in 1952.

In all states the turn in the Korean war has done great things for Democratic chances, but the GOP has plenty of punch left for the knockdown fights in the important states like Ohio, Colorado, Illinois Pennsylvania, Maryland, and California. The 1950 elections may or may not bring a shift in Congressional control. But the voters will be speaking out on every main political issue; and they will be able to decide whether old or new faces will be around for the national sweepstakes of 1952.