Whether Stalingrad falls before the advancing Germans or remains in the hands of its defenders will not weigh as heavily on the outcome of the Russian struggle as people believe, stated Michael Karpovich, associate professor of History.

The battle for Stalingrad will probably be decided within a week, but there is not yet sufficient information form official quarters to indicate which side will crack first, he said. Although the capture of this city would mean the loss of the Volga, most important supply line for the shipment of oil from the rich fields across the Caucusas, there are still other routes.

Other Routes Remain

With Stalingrad gone, said Karpovich, Baku oil could be sent across the Caspian to ports in the Ural region and shipped from there overland by rail. Such a method, of course, would tax Russian rail facilities to the utmost.

Most disastrous and improbable turn of the war would be the capture or destruction of the Baku fields themselves, for their wells supply the Russian war machine with 80 per cent of its fuel. Fortunately, Karpovich pointed out, Baku is distant from the present German lines and occupies an easily defended position.

Southern Winters Severe

Another factor in favor of the Russians is the approaching winter which is just as severe around Stalingrad as it is in the Moscow region, although delayed for two or three weeks. According to Karpovich, however, the Germans have about two months of fair weather upon which they may count.

The Russian counter-thrust near Moscow will have no effect unless a break-through along the Germans' Smolensk supply line can be made, he stated. Such a break-through would force the Nazis to retreat and draw troops from the South to check the Russian drive.

Talk of a second front or something which would approach it may become a reality.