Unless the U. S. throws its influence behind Juan Andreu Almazan, contender for the Mexican presidency, Avila Camacho, President Cardena's candidate, is almost certain to come out on top of Mexico's boiling political stew.
This was the opinion of Paul M. Sweezy '31, instructor in Economics and Dunster House tutor, who spent a month this summer in Mexico during the recent election.
"Most of the well informed people whom I met had fatalistic attitude that whatever happens depends on Washington," he said in an interview yesterday. He believes that to avoid the serious civil war which would result if the U. S. supported Almazan, Secretary of State Hull has indicated a slight preference for Camacho, whose party now seems predominant.
Interests Run Elections
Commenting on the election count, the one time CRIMSON president, who now teaches a course on "The Economics of Socialism," said: "The nature of the election process is such that you can't tell who got the most votes. In judging a candidate's chances, the only thing you can do is to find out what interests are supporting him."
During his stay in Mexico Sweezy saw no evidence that German Nazis were openly supporting Almazan, though he believes that the powerful Spanish Falange, a fascist party which is probably allied with the Nazis, has backed the conservative candidate. Almazan has also received the support of American oil companies, who hoped that he would return their expropriated oil properties.
Mexican Poverty Acute
At the root of all of Mexico's problems lies her unbelievable poverty, Sweezy said. "We in America have no conception of how poor the people are. Malnutrition and lack of sanitary conditions take a large toll each year. It has been estimated that approximately one out of every five persons die from intestinal disorders largely caused by contaminated drinking water.
Concentrating his efforts upon the acute agrarian problem, President Cardenas has speeded up the distribution of land from large estates among the peasants. "It seems to me," Sweezy remarked, "that the only hope of raising the standard of living is to continue the trend towards collectivized agriculture."
Sweezy believes that Almazan would probably stop the distribution of land, and might return some of the properties to the large landowners; at least that is what the Mexican upperclass expects.
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