"The crux of the election lies in the coal-mining districts of Pennsylvania. Unless John L. Lewis can swing enough votes to give Willkie the state, the election is in the bag for Roosevelt." This is the opinion of Government Professor Arthur N. Holcombe '06, chief political seer of the Faculty.

The fear of losing Pennsylvania has been the major thorn in the side of the Republican candidate. Professor Holcombe thinks, since, without it, even carrying all the doubtful states, he could not win.

With Roosevelt spiking Willkie's war-mongering charges in his campaign addresses, the Willkie trend should collapse, he stated. "Roosevelt will not lead us into war; he is too smart a politician."

Would Lose Support

Professor Holcombe pointed out that Wilson lost his political following when he led the country into the last war against its will, and if Roosevelt were to favor intervention he would be doing the same thing.

With no read issues splitting the parties, the Government professor sees the campaign as one of personalities. "The only class Willkie has appealed to is business. In labor and agriculture he is trying to outdo Roosevelt, while on foreign policy he is being vaguer to catch more votes."

The third term issue Professor Holcombe considered comparatively unimportant, influencing no votes and merely reflecting the political beliefs of those who use it. This is evidenced by the fact that several Democrats who opposed the third term in theory in 1928 are now favoring FDR.

"Both Hamilton and Washington, the idols of the Republican Party, realized that it might become necessary in case of emergency."

The possibility that a new political alignment will result from the campaign was envisioned by Professor Holcombe. He sees the South less firmly attached to the Democrats and the Republicans bidding for it to counter-balance the labor vote.