In 1914 there was tremendous moral indignation in Europe over that invaluable phrase, "a scrap of paper." Today, alas, there will shortly be an addition to the existing supply of moral indignation, for Japan is taking advantage of European difficulties to go a-fishing in troubled waters. Japan has become civilized; she now has armaments in the best western manner, she has aped methods of European diplomacy, turning them to good use in her present moves toward a chaste imperialism, all in the best traditions.

To the rigid moralist, Japan's current policy is frightfully reprehensible and productive of grief. Recently, she has once again shyly intimated her utterly disinterested desire to establish a Monroe Doctrine for the continent of Asia, a policy which violates not only the Nine-Power Treaty of 1921, but other treaty obligations as well. Diplomatists are expressing shocked surprise at this, a state of affairs which is either a tribute to their innocent incompetence, or to their mendacious abilities. To the historian, this desire has been common knowledge for at least a decade, but, of course, diplomatists are unsophisticated folk.

From admittedly incomplete information, it would appear that Japan feels the moment appropriate to extend the claims made in the Twenty-one Demands of 1915. Thwarted at that time, chiefly by untimely publicity, in her endeavors to establish a virtual protectorate over China, she managed deftly to acquire a strangling grasp on certain important Chinese economic interests, such as the Han-Yehping mines, as well as significant privileges in Manchuria. Her recent advances in this tremendously important region need no comment, and these are being supplemented by subterranean movements in Mongolia and Sinkiang. From these it would appear, with little exaggeration, that Japan is adopting a veritable Einkreisungspolitik in regard to China proper.

What can the Powers do about it? Not much. The European powers are too greatly concerned over the Central European situation to do more than mouth unimpressive nothings about the Far East. It was in a similar pother over Central Europe that Japan managed to annex a considerable portion of what had once been Europe's trade with the Far East, so that it would appear that history is repeating itself in a strangely short time. The League of Nations will consider, delay, expostulate, threaten, be extremely firm, and Japan will emerge with what she desires. It has been said that Wilson, in his notes to Germany, first shook his fist, and then shook his finger. The League is at least consistent in following the example of its creator. The United States will probably be firm in its traditional policy of friendship toward China; this moral backing will doubtless be highly comforting to China. But unless some Power or group of states is prepared to fight, these "pious hopes expressed in general terms" will be useless, and Japan will secure exactly what she desires. In any event, the western powers may console themselves with the thought that Japan has been an apt pupil. Too apt for comfort! CONFUCIUS.