When the pessimist makes a survey of the events of the year past he is always sure to find an indication of wars to come, and so it is with a Berlin correspondent of the London "Daily Mail". Germany and Russia are in the act of concluding an alliance which will give combined strength enough for a satisfactory vengeance on France. Meanwhile Poland is to be repartitioned, and the greater part annexed to Russia, to give the two countries a common frontier. Then Germany and Russia will make a new treaty which will at least have the virtue of satisfying them both.

Nations are tired of hearing how France is to be invaded; but the new prediction at least has interest in regard to Poland--one of the many nations reborn at Versailles, which has had considerable trouble in its second teething days. It has been so long divided up among its neighbors that it can hardly realize its unity. Like the Netherlands of a century ago, Poland, freed from foreign control, does not know what to do with itself. And yet it is the fifth largest nation in Europe, with resources three times as great as those of the Netherlands.

Since the war Paderewski has tried his hand at the premiership, and has returned to America a sadder and wiser man. After him many governments have ruled and fallen, and President Narutowicz, after a reign of two days, has been assassinated. Yesterday a new president was elected--Wojiechowski, who, as his name suggests, is a friend of the "strong man of Poland", Marshal Pilsudski. He is of the same party as the late president, and will continue his policy; but what appears most hopeful is that he has the respect of both Radicals and Nationalists, and is well assured of a unified support.

But in spite of anarchy and assassination and rumours of war, infant Poland has successfully passed through the attacks of political measles and whooping-cough, and seems destined to grow up a strong member of the family of nations. Once established it will prove an effectual buffer between the central-European countries--more effective than the Belgium of 1914, because larger and stronger. And if, as has sometimes been claimed the true pessimist is really an optimist because everything will turn out better than he expects, the Daily Mail's correspondent can look forward to seeing in Poland the one hopeful sign in a badly confused and battered Europe.