Among the outstanding events of the last few weeks are to be noted the coming to power of Terauchi in Japan and the beginning of the long deferred struggle for the control of the oil wells and wheat fields of the lower Danube. That Germany was surprised by the entry of Rumania into the war was made clear by the removal of von Falkenhayn; whether von Hindenburg can rectify the error of his predecessor is doubtful. Yet it would seem already that there was little military foresight to accompany the Allies' successful political coup in the Balkans.

Should Germany fail to reach Bukarest and Galatz she will suffer her greatest set back in the war; perhaps a fatal set back. Should she, on the contrary, secure the economic and transportation facilities that are involved, her hand will be stronger than at any moment for a diplomatic move. With either Russia or Japan she may come to terms, and if with the latter then we should be face to face with our own hour of peril.

Chinese Seizures Unwelcome.

Already the Allies have been compelled to acquiesce in a disturbance of power far greater than any of them can hope to accomplish to their own profit,--Japan's seizure of the Chinese finances and army. She is now in a position to demand of the eventual winner even heavier terms. And Germany can hardly afford to bargain with her.

Should this be the eventuality realized, it is clear that the great current of munitions and material would cease flowing westward from Vladivostock. An attack on Hawaii, Panama and Seattle would stop that current flowing from our Atlantic ports eastward. The world conflagration would have reached its height and we should be in the fire.

I am not prophesying that this is going to happen. But it may happen. And we continue talking about pacifism, talking about politics, talking about national defence, always talking, always bluffing, playing up to the sluggishness, indifference or ignorance of the mass, or boosting short-cut enthusiasms. Nothing is done. Every minute calls for action. And the fact is that each year one War Department sinks deeper and deeper into a mire of incompetence and chaos.